Based on current inflation and economic data, TSCL predicts the 2027 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) will be 2.8% percent. That’s 0.3 percentage points higher than last month’s prediction of 2.5 percent. It’s the same percentage as the 2026 COLA.
If the 2027 COLA really comes in at 2,8 percent, this paltry figure would only exacerbate seniors’ financial stress. TSCL’s research shows that 57.6 percent of America’s 55.8 million seniors have forgone at least one healthcare product or service to cut costs in the last 12 months. The top medical services that seniors skip to trim their budgets are dental (42.3 percent), vision (28.8 percent), and hearing( 19.6 percent).
The seniors who most depend on the COLA are more likely to forgo care. Only 18.9 percent of financially healthy seniors, who live comfortably with enough savings to provide adequate income for their whole retirement, had skipped a medical product or service. That figure rises to 78.7 percent among the financially at risk, whose incomes do not cover essentials.
Key Insights:
- Medicare Part B Premiums Rise Faster Than Social Security Benefits. In 2026, the Medicare Part B Premium rose by 9.7 percent, from $185.00 to $202.90. That’s more than three times the 2026 COLA of 2.8 percent. Medicare Part B Premiums also grew faster than the COLA in 2024 and 2025.
- Medicare Part B does not cover dental, hearing, or vision. Retirees must therefore purchase a Medicare Advantage plan, pay for private insurance, or cover the cost for these services out of pocket if they want this care.
TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton says…
“The projected 2027 COLA will surely leave seniors dissatisfied and frustrated. The reality is most older Americans constantly tell us they believe the CPI-W, the measure used to calculate the COLA, underestimates inflation as they see it. Affordability is the popular word around town right now, even among other groups, because most Americans believe inflation is higher than the government claims.”
“Medicare treats dental, vision, and hearing insurance like extras or add-ons for American seniors, but access to these services is essential. Regular, preventive dental care can save you thousands of dollars in the long run, so, as a society, allowing cost to remain a barrier makes no sense. Vision and hearing loss also have meaningful connections to cognitive decline, meaning lack of access to this coverage progressively sabotages quality of life for countless seniors.
About TSCL:
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) is one of the nation’s largest nonpartisan seniors’ groups. Established in 1992 as a special project of The Retired Enlisted Association, our mission is to promote and assist our members and supporters, educate and alert senior citizens about their rights and freedoms as U.S. citizens, and protect and defend the benefits seniors have earned and paid for. TSCL consists of vocally active senior citizens concerned about the protection of their Social Security, Medicare, and veteran or military retiree benefits. To learn more, visit https://seniorsleague.org/about-us/.
About the TSCL COLA Model:
TSCL issues a new prediction of the next COLA for Social Security each month using our statistical model. The model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate to make its predictions. The model’s predictions update throughout the year, adjusting in response to economic conditions. For additional information about the model, contact Alex Moore, TSCL’s statistician, at amoore@tsclhq.org.
We released a new version of the model, v1.2, in January 2025. The new version updates the model’s date handling, processing data according to the federal fiscal year rather than the calendar year. The new model also reduces each prediction’s reliance on previous predictions made throughout the federal fiscal year.
Contact Information:
- Shannon Benton, Executive Director: sbenton@tsclhq.org; 703-548-5568
- Alex Moore, Statistician: amoore@tsclhq.org; 571-374-2658
