TSCL predicts that Social Security’s 2027 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) will be 3.8%, or 1.0 percentage point higher than this year’s COLA of 2.8%. This prediction is based on new CPI data released this morning. The CPI-W, used to calculate the COLA, currently sits at 4.4 percent.
If a 3.8 percent COLA went into effect, the average benefit for retirees would rise by $77.00. Social Security currently pays the average retiree $2,026.41 per month. With the predicted COLA, payments would increase to $2,103.41.
Average payments fall short of what it costs to live in the U.S. Factoring in rent for a 1-bedroom apartment and basic living expenses, the average senior cost of living is for one person is about $2,700 per month.
24.8 million older Americans—more than ever—draw all their retirement income from Social Security. According to TSCL’s 2026 Senior Survey, 44 percent of them depend on Social Security for all of their income, up from 39 percent in 2025. TSCL released this report today, available for free at this link.
Key Insights:
- Social Security payments for retirees come in lower than the average U.S. cost of living. The average retirement check is $2,026.41 per month, and it would increase to $2,103.41 with a 3.8% COLA. Meanwhile, the U.S. cost of living for one person is about $2,700. Monthly non-rent living costs average $1,180.70 per month, according to Numbeo; average rent for a one-bedroom apartment runs $1,520, according to Zillow.
- With 44 percent of seniors depending entirely on Social Security for their retirement income, these cost-of-living figures suggest millions do not have enough resources to meet their basic needs, such as housing, food, and healthcare. Even more alarming, TSCL’s 2026 Senior Survey estimates that 57 percent of seniors survive on less than $2,000 a month, while 13 percent get by on less than $1,000, which places an estimated 5.6 million below the federal poverty line.
TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton says…
“We’re seeing inflation on the rise when more than half of seniors already can’t afford basic living standards. We’re talking about food, a roof over their head, and transportation. Many seniors already have to skip doctor’s appointments due to costs, which costs all of us more in the long run when we swap preventative care for emergency care.”
“A 3.8 percent COLA might sound like a lot compared to last year’s 2.8 percent, but it won’t be enough to make up the difference between what seniors bring in and what they need to live with dignity. And that’s the point of the program: It’s to grant `some measure of perfection against the loss of a job and against poverty-ridden old age,` as Franklin D. Roosevelt said when he signed Social Security into law 91 years ago. Are we really able to say we’re fulfilling that goal right now?”
“Congress and the President must raise benefits so seniors can meet basic cost-of-living standards, for the good of the entire country. When signing Social Security into law, President Roosevelt described the program as `a structure intended to lessen the force of possible future depressions` and `flatten out the peaks and valleys of deflation and of inflation`. In today’s world, with change coming faster than ever, most Americans would tell you that they agree.”
About TSCL:
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) is one of the nation’s largest nonpartisan seniors’ groups. Established in 1992 as a special project of The Retired Enlisted Association, our mission is to promote and assist our members and supporters, educate and alert senior citizens about their rights and freedoms as U.S. citizens, and protect and defend the benefits seniors have earned and paid for. TSCL consists of vocally active senior citizens concerned about the protection of their Social Security, Medicare, and veteran or military retiree benefits. To learn more, visit https://seniorsleague.org/about-us/.
About the TSCL COLA Model:
TSCL issues a new prediction of the next COLA for Social Security each month using our statistical model. The model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate to make its predictions. The model’s predictions update throughout the year, adjusting in response to economic conditions. For additional information about the model, contact Alex Moore, TSCL’s statistician, at amoore@tsclhq.org.
We released a new version of the model, v1.2, in January 2025. The new version updates the model’s date handling, processing data according to the federal fiscal year rather than the calendar year. The new model also reduces each prediction’s reliance on previous predictions made throughout the federal fiscal year.
Contact Information:
● Shannon Benton, Executive Director: sbenton@tsclhq.org; 703-548-5568
● Alex Moore, Statistician: amoore@tsclhq.org; 571-349-2658
