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Cost-of-Living Adjustment for 2027 Announced at 3.6%

For Immediate Release – October 14th, 2026

Today, the Social Security Administration (SSA) announced that 2026’s Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) will be 3.6 percent. On average, retired workers’ Social Security checks will increase by $75. from $2,087.52 to $2,162.67 effective January 1st.

The 2027 COLA will be 0.8 percentage points higher than the 2026 COLA of 2.8 percent. It is the highest COLA since 2023, when inflation reached 8.7 percent. From a historic standpoint, this COLA is slightly above average, tied for 18th out of the 52 COLAs announced since the government tied COLAs to the Consumer Price Index in 1975.

Inflation came in much higher than TSCL projected at the beginning of the year. This January, TSCL’s model predicted that the 2027 COLA would come in at 2.8 percent. However, inflation rose as fuel prices spiked at the outset of the Iran war. The average price per barrel of crude oil rose from $64.50 in January to a peak of $108.64 in May, when TSCL made the largest one-month forecast adjustment in our current COLA model’s history.

Key Insights:

  • Social Security calculated the 2027 COLA by taking the average yearly change of the CPI-W for July, August, and September. The CPI-W is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, and Social Security must calculate COLAs with this method by law. The CPI-W yearly change was 3.4 percent in July, 3.5 percent in August, and 3.9 percent in September.

  • The 2027 COLA will be too low. Seniors constantly tell TSCL that they don’t feel like COLAs reflect inflation as they experience it. In our 2026 Senior Survey, 89 percent of respondents said they felt the last COLA was too low and their benefits would fall behind inflation. In the 2025 Senior Survey, that figure was 94 percent.

  • The 2027 COLA will come too late. Seniors won’t see any changes to their benefit checks due to the COLA until January 1st, but the inflation the COLA is supposed to account for already occurred. In years like 2026, when lots of inflation happens in the first half of the year, it means seniors have to endure elevated prices for months without any financial recourse.

TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton says…

  • “Another year, another COLA that falls short of expectations. Seniors will find themselves disappointed today when they look up the COLA announcement in the news. The reality is that millions depend on Social Security to retire with dignity, and today’s announcement puts that ideal in jeopardy for millions.”

  • “When inflation spikes due to a geopolitical event like the Iran war, seniors pay the price. Prices go up today, but benefits stay the same for months due to an outdated COLA methodology. Working people can request a raise or seek a higher-paying position, but seniors have to make lifestyle cuts or drain their savings until the next COLA.”
  • “Congress cannot control every price increase, but it can act to ensure that the COLA formula does not leave people behind. The people who depend on these benefits cannot afford another year of empty promises, inadequate adjustments, and shrinking purchasing power. They deserve more than a cost-of-living adjustment on paper; they deserve one that works in real life. Congress has the authority to address this problem, the responsibility to protect the people affected by it, and no excuse for continuing toignore the consequences. The time for action is now—not after another year of rising bills and lost buying power.”

About TSCL:

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) is one of the nation’s largest nonpartisan seniors’ groups. Established in 1992 as a special project of The Retired Enlisted Association, our mission is to promote and assist our members and supporters, educate and alert senior citizens about their rights and freedoms as U.S. citizens, and protect and defend the benefits seniors have earned and paid for. TSCL consists of vocally active senior citizens concerned about the protection of their Social Security, Medicare, and veteran or military retiree benefits. To learn more, visit https://seniorsleague.org/about-us/.

About the TSCL COLA Model:

TSCL issues a new prediction of the next COLA for Social Security each month using our statistical model. The model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate to make its predictions. The model’s predictions update throughout the year, adjusting in response to economic conditions. For additional information about the model, contact Alex Moore, TSCL’s statistician, at amoore@tsclhq.org.

We released a new version of the model, v1.2, in January 2025. The new version updates the model’s use of dates, processing data according to the federal fiscal year instead of the calendar year. The new model also reduces each prediction’s reliance on previous predictions made throughout the federal fiscal year.

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