For Immediate Release – ​​November 10, 2026 

TSCL predicts that Social Security’s 2028 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) will be 3.6 percent. This is our first prediction since last month’s announcement that the 2027 COLA will be 3.6 percent.  

Benefits-related issues loom for the incoming Congress. Seniors are the country’s fastest-growing homeless population. Social Security faces insolvency and automatic benefit reductions in 2032. The Medicare Part A trust fund is projected to become insolvent in 2033. Millions forgo vision, dental, and hearing care because they can’t afford it. 

TSCL calls on the 120th Congress to: 

  • Immediately lift or eliminate the Social Security Payroll tax threshold, which prevents the wealthy from paying their fair share into the program. 
  • Restore budget cuts to Medicare and Medicaid from the One Big Beautiful Bill. 
  • Add dental, vision, and hearing care to Medicare. 
  • Issue a one-time $1,400 senior stimulus to help make up for inadequate COLAs and rising inflation. 

Key Insights: 

  • The senators elected in this midterm cycle will play a critical role in determining Social Security’s future. Taking office on January 3, 2027, and serving through January 3, 2033, their terms will coincide with Social Security’s projected trust fund insolvency in late 2032. Unless Congress acts to strengthen the program’s finances, Social Security will no longer have sufficient funds to pay full scheduled benefits, triggering automatic benefit reductions for millions of Americans. The responsibility to prevent these devastating cuts will fall squarely on the shoulders of this Congress and those that follow. 
  • Lifting or eliminating the Social Security payroll tax threshold would be a great start. In 2026, Americans do not pay Social Security taxes on any income above $184,500. The SSA projects that eliminating this loophole would add decades to the Social Security trust fund. Our research shows seniors overwhelmingly support this policy, regardless of political affiliation.  
  • Medicare Part A trust fund insolvency presents a new challenge. The Medicare Part A trust fund covers hospital insurance for program beneficiaries. It is projected to become depleted in 2033. Meanwhile, the Big Beautiful Bill enacted over nearly $1 trillion in public healthcare spending cuts.  
     

TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton says… 

  • “The incoming class of Senators face an enormous responsibility. Americans have chosen these elected representatives to protect seniors’ dignity and rights, to protect benefits for today’s retirees while reforming Social Security taxes to ensure the program continues to serve generations to come.” 
     
  • “Benefits reform can absolutely happen even if two different parties control the Capitol and the While House. Ensuring Americans can retire with dignity isn’t a left-wing issue or a right-wing issue; it’s not a Democratic issue or a Republican issue. It affects all of us, and all of us stand to lose if Congress fails to act to protect America’s seniors.” 
     
  • “While we can’t take Social Security’s looming insolvency out of the spotlight, it’s not a reason to downplay other issues facing retirees. Even without any insolvency-driven benefit cuts, millions of seniors already struggle to pay for food, basic healthcare, and even housing.” 

About TSCL: 

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) is one of the nation’s largest nonpartisan seniors’ groups. Established in 1992 as a special project of The Retired Enlisted Association, our mission is to promote and assist our members and supporters, educate and alert senior citizens about their rights and freedoms as U.S. citizens, and protect and defend the benefits seniors have earned and paid for. TSCL consists of vocally active senior citizens concerned about the protection of their Social Security, Medicare, and veteran or military retiree benefits. To learn more, visit https://seniorsleague.org/about-us/.  

About the TSCL COLA Model: 

TSCL issues a new prediction of the next COLA for Social Security each month using our statistical model. The model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate to make its predictions. The model’s predictions update throughout the year, adjusting as economic conditions change. For additional information about the model, contact Alex Moore, TSCL’s statistician, at amoore@tsclhq.org.  

We released a new version of the model, v1.3, in November 2026. The new version updates the model’s date-processing logic and data-cleaning process. The update slightly increased predictive accuracy. 

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