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TSCL Predicts Social Security COLA at 2.8% As New Proposal Would Cap Benefits at $50,000 per Person

For Immediate Release – April 10, 2026

TSCL Predicts Social Security COLA at 2.8% As New Proposal Would Cap Benefits at $50,000 per Person

For Immediate Release – April 10, 2026

TSCL Predicts Social Security COLA at 2.8% As New Proposal Would Cap Benefits at $50,000 per Person

Based on the latest CPI data, released this morning, TSCL predicts that Social Security’s 2027 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) will be 2.8%, the same as the 2026 COLA of 2.8%. The average benefits check for retired workers would increase by $56.69, from $2,024.77 to $2,081.46.

Meanwhile, as Social Security faces a potential benefits cuts of around 24% in 2032 unless Congress acts due to its lagging finances, a new proposal would address the problem by capping payments to beneficiaries at $50,000 per person, or $100,000 per couple. Proposed by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and called the “Six Figure Limit,” the policy would close about three fifths of the program’s projected shortfall over the next 75 years.

However, seniors are likely to resist this plan. This effectively amounts to a benefits cut for some Americans, and TSCL’s research finds that 95% of seniors oppose benefits cuts for current retirees, while 66% oppose cuts for future retirees.

 

Key Insights:

  • $100,000 doesn’t go as far as it used to. One issue with the Six Figure Limit plan is that it does not guarantee that its new cap on Social Security benefits would increase over time as the economy grows or might freeze the cap for up to 30 years before allowing it to grow. In major urban areas, such as New York, the District of Columbia, Los Angeles, and Boston, average rent already often exceeds $2,000 per month for a 1-bedroom apartment.
  • Seniors already prefer a better means of extending Social Security’s finances. Instead of limiting the cap on benefits, most seniors would have the government eliminate the cap on Social Security contributions. Americans currently do not pay taxes into Social Security on income above $184,500. About 77 percent of seniors support eliminating the limit, according to our research, with majorities among both Democrats, Republicans, and Independents alike. According to the Social Security Administration’s Office of the Chief Actuary, this would extend Social Security’s insolvency through at least 2090 without any benefit cuts. That’s even longer than what the Six Figure Limit proposal would accomplish.

TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton says…

  • “Rather than taking away benefits from people who have paid into the system their entire working lives, we should focus on strengthening America’s pension system. Seniors tell us over and over that their benefits don’t go as far as they used to, and many younger people worry if the program will have atrophied to a shadow of its former self by the time they reach retirement age, even as taxes on their wages cover today’s benefits.”
  • “Americans are right to worry about our current COLA projection. The fact is that most senior households already get by on only about 58% as much income as their working-age counterparts, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a middle-class or working-class American who thinks the economy is doing well right now, especially as oil prices rise. Reforming Social Security needs to follow a two-pronged approach, strengthening revenues and benefits at the same time to ensure prosperity for all Americans, of all ages.”

About TSCL:

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) is one of the nation’s largest nonpartisan seniors’ groups. Established in 1992 as a special project of The Retired Enlisted Association, our mission is to promote and assist our members and supporters, educate and alert senior citizens about their rights and freedoms as U.S. citizens, and protect and defend the benefits seniors have earned and paid for. TSCL consists of vocally active senior citizens concerned about the protection of their Social Security, Medicare, and veteran or military retiree benefits. To learn more, visit https://seniorsleague.org/about-us/.

About the TSCL COLA Model:

TSCL issues a new prediction of the next COLA for Social Security each month using our statistical model. The model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate to make its predictions. The model’s predictions update throughout the year, adjusting in response to economic conditions. For additional information about the model, contact Alex Moore, TSCL’s statistician, at amoore@tsclhq.org.

We released a new version of the model, v1.2, in January 2025. The new version updates the model’s date handling, processing data according to the federal fiscal year rather than the calendar year. The new model also reduces each prediction’s reliance on previous predictions made throughout the federal fiscal year.

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