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Social Security Doomsday Clock Ticks Closer to Midnight as TSCL Predicts 2027 COLA at 2.8%

For Immediate Release: March 11, 2026

Social Security’s trust fund is set to deplete a year earlier than previously estimated, in 2032, not in 2033, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Unless Congress passes Social Security reform before this deadline, it will trigger a 24 percent automatic benefits cut. Someone who receives a monthly benefits check of $2,000 would see it drop by $480 to $1,520.

This bad news comes as seniors worry about their existing benefits’ ability to keep up with inflation, with TSCL predicting a 2.8 percent 2027 COLA. That would be the exact same as last year’s COLA of 2.8 percent, a far cry from the 8.7 percent COLA issued in 2023 to help benefits keep pace with pandemic-related inflation, which seniors continue to see as a top issue, according to TSCL’s 2025 Retirement Survey.

Between lagging COLAs and Social Security’s funding creeping into dangerous territory, many seniors have lost faith in Congress. TSCL finds that three in four seniors do not believe it’s likely that Congress steps in to save Social Security.

Key Insights:

  • Even before potential benefit cuts, most seniors think their benefits are falling behind inflation. According to TSCL’s research, 58 percent of seniors fear that fast-rising inflation will drive up their spending and force them to deplete their retirement savings early. That percentage only goes up among seniors experiencing financial stress.

  • A potential benefits cut would push many seniors into poverty. More than four in five Americans over the age of 65 see Social Security’s looming insolvency as a very or extremely concerning issue, according to TSCL’s research. If automatic benefits cut occurred, 73 percent say they would struggle to pay monthly bills, 68 percent would cut back on food or groceries, and 52 percent would skip or delay medical care or prescriptions.

TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton says…

  • “Years of lackluster COLAs and a looming Social Security insolvency crisis, with its 24 percent automatic benefits cuts, puts a double squeeze on seniors. Older Americans already feel like their benefits don’t keep up with inflation, so this risks putting them further and further behind, pushing many into poverty.”
  • “Solutions to both the COLA and Social Security’s insolvency are on the table. Most of them are common sense, and many are popular among seniors. For example, 77 percent of seniors support eliminating the $184,500 cap on income subject to Social Security taxation, with both Republicans and Democrats broadly in favor. According to the Social Security Administration’s Chief Actuary, this would extend Social Security’s solvency by 68 years, through 2090.”

About TSCL:

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) is one of the nation’s largest nonpartisan seniors’ groups. Established in 1992 as a special project of The Retired Enlisted Association, our mission is to promote and assist our members and supporters, educate and alert senior citizens about their rights and freedoms as U.S. citizens, and protect and defend the benefits seniors have earned and paid for. TSCL consists of vocally active senior citizens concerned about the protection of their Social Security, Medicare, and veteran or military retiree benefits. To learn more, visit https://seniorsleague.org/about-us/.

About the TSCL COLA Model:

TSCL issues a new prediction of the next COLA for Social Security each month using our statistical model. The model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate to make its predictions. The model’s predictions update throughout the year, adjusting in response to economic conditions. For additional information about the model, contact Alex Moore, TSCL’s statistician, at amoore@tsclhq.org.

We released a new version of the model, v1.2, in January 2025. The new version updates the model’s date handling, processing data according to the federal fiscal year rather than the calendar year. The new model also reduces each prediction’s reliance on previous predictions made throughout the federal fiscal year.

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