As the end of 2024 approaches, Congress struggles with what final legislation to pass. Any bills that have been introduced but do not pass by the time it adjourns will be dead. That means they would have to be re-introduced next year and go through the legislative process all over again if they are to be voted into law by the new Congress.
Because Republicans will control both the House and the Senate, as well as the Presidency, it becomes difficult to predict what might happen regarding issues important to TSCL supporters. We discuss some of those issues below.
Cutting Taxes or Cutting Federal Spending?
President-elect Trump and congressional Republicans want to pass more tax cuts, which is high on their agendas. However, they also want to reduce the federal debt.
To do both, they must dramatically cut federal spending. Discussions about how to do that are going on now. TSCL will be carefully watching what they decide to do because massive cuts in federal spending will likely affect many seniors.
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Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid
While Trump has vowed not to cut Social Security and Medicare, Medicaid's situation may differ.
Trump's vow not to cut Social Security and Medicare is welcome news, but cutting taxes while also reducing the federal debt is tremendously difficult without making major cuts to current federal programs. Those two programs, along with defense spending, are where the largest amounts of money are to be found.
Adding to the difficulty is that, as TSCL has been warning for years, if something is not done soon to shore up Social Security, benefits will have to be cut by as much as 21% within 10 years.
Medicare, which faces the same situation, must also be dealt with. Trump has picked Dr Mehmet Oz of television fame to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which is essentially the federal government's insurance provider.
Oz has been a proponent of Medicare Advantage, a private-sector alternative to traditional Medicare that has come under scrutiny for overbilling Medicare, having limited provider networks, and routinely denying care to patients. In addition to those problems, critics warn that if Medicare moves more and more toward Medicare Advantage, it will essentially privatize the program. When he ran for Senate in Pennsylvania in 2022, Oz promoted a policy for expanding access to Medicare Advantage to any individual who wants to enroll.
As far as Medicaid goes, more than 88 million people, including roughly 40 million children, were enrolled in Medicaid as of September 2023, according to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). It remains the largest source of federal funding for states. Cutting that program would mean that millions of people in certain states would lose their health care coverage. Those would include people working full or part-time – and mostly at low-wage jobs like cashiers, drivers, janitors, and cooks where their employer often doesn't provide health coverage.
TSCL will closely monitor these issues beginning in January of next year when the new Congress and new President take office.
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Social Security Fairness Act Stalls in Senate
TSCL has supported fixing the Social Security program for certain federal employees for years, and, finally, we are as close to victory as we have ever been. However, we are not there yet.
The Social Security law's windfall elimination provision (WEP) and the government pension offset (GPO) provisions are at issue.
For many current Social Security recipients, the WEP and GPO take thousands of dollars from their yearly benefit amount, including retired public service workers, former police officers, teachers, and nurses.
In early November, the Social Security Fairness Act was headed for easy passage in the House of Representatives until Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris (Republican of Maryland) used a parliamentary procedure rule to kill it despite its overwhelming bipartisan support. However, because of its overwhelming support, the bill was resurrected and passed by many Democrats and Republicans.
The bill is now awaiting action in the Senate, but with the number of days left in this session of Congress quickly dwindling, passage is uncertain.
While many people think the bill could pass as a stand-alone measure, there are so many other important bills to deal with that there has been talk about, including the Social Security Fairness Act as part of a year-end negotiation. However, some supporters of the bill believe that action would really be an effort to kill the bill.
Unless the Senate passes the bill exactly as it was sent to them by the House, it will have to go to a joint House-Senate committee to ensure the versions are exactly the same. Then, it would have to go back to both chambers for a final vote before being sent to the President for his signature.
The final passage remains to be determined, with only a handful of days left in this year.
If the bill does not pass, it will have to be re-introduced in the new session of Congress and begin the legislative process all over again.
TSCL urges anyone who supports this bill to immediately call their Senators and urge them to vote to pass the Social Security Fairness Act.
TSCL will also continue to urge the Senate to act and finally pass this important bill into law.
